202501081610 Status: #idea Tags: #economics #war #china #united_states # China's production capacity is already triple that of the US When looking at GDP comparisons between China and the US, it appears that the US is still far ahead of China (and pulling even farther ahead). However, this obscures the economic reality of war confrontation between the two countries for two reasons: 1. It is not adjusted for purchasing power parity and so doesn't actually capture how much "stuff" can be bought with a country's currency 2. It includes the services sector (things like healthcare, financial services, consulting, housing, etc). which, while important for the wellbeing of everyday citizens, are likely to contribute little-to-nothing in the case of a war. When adjusting for these two factors (using PPP statistics and subtracting out services from GDP), we see that as of 2023, China's "productive GDP @ PPP" is already three times the size of the United States! ![[Pasted image 20250108160549.png]] Critically, a coalition of China & Russia has a larger productive capacity than the US, EU, South Korea, and Japan *combined*. The Chinese coalition would also have a population 50% greater than the US coalition, representing a surplus of 500 million people (1.5 billion vs 1 billion). In the event of a war, this productive capacity, producing tanks, planes, drones, cars, ammunition, guns, and more, along with the massive population difference is what will drive outcomes. Not healthcare & financial services. [[China will be able to overwhelm the US In a major war by the end of the decade]] [[The longer war drags on, the more economic it becomes]] --- # References https://austrianchina.substack.com/p/chinas-shocking-worldwide-economic https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-do-we-measure-whether-chinas?utm_campaign=email-post-title&utm_medium=email https://asiatimes.com/2024/06/whats-the-real-size-of-chinas-economy/